The Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in CFSv2 Forecasts: Biases and Importance of Improving Air-Sea Interaction Processes

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0623.1

QIBEBT-IR

	The Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in CFSv2 Forecasts: Biases and Importance of Improving Air-Sea Interaction Processes
	Li, Yuanlong 1,2,3; Han, Weiqing 2; Wang, Wanqiu 4; Zhang, Lei 2; Ravichandran, M.5
	2018-07-01
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN	0894-8755
卷号	31 期号:14 页码:5351-5370
摘要	Northward-propagating Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) are a major origin of the active-break spells of the monsoon rainfall. Forecast results for 28 active and 27 break spells from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), during 1999-2010 are analyzed. CFSv2 forecasts are able to represent the propagation of MISOs from the equator to central India, showing improvements in many aspects compared to its previous version. Systematic biases for MISOs, however, still exist, exhibiting apparently weaker amplitude and slower northward propagation compared to observations. The eastern Arabian Sea (EAS)-western Bay of Bengal (WBB) region (EAS-WBB region; 12 degrees-20 degrees N, 65 degrees-85 degrees E) is found to be critical for the MISO prediction. In that region, the forecast and observed MISO trajectories begin to bifurcate from each other, and forecast errors grow rapidly. Further diagnosis reveals that local air-sea interaction in that region is severely underrepresented in CFSv2. Sea surface temperature (SST) response to surface heat flux forcing and convection response to SST forcing are both too weak, leading to the underestimated MISO amplitude. The relationship between precipitation and SST in CFSv2 is much more chaotic than in observation. The misrepresentation of air-sea coupling results in longer MISO periods in the EAS-WBB region, manifesting as slower propagation and delayed arrival of MISOs in central India. Refining the air-sea coupling processes is crucial for improving the CFSv2 forecast. This includes taking into account the ocean skin layer, better resolving the diurnal cycle, and improving the ocean model physics.
文章类型	Article
关键词	Monsoons Sea Surface Temperature Air-sea Interaction Forecasting Intraseasonal Variability
WOS标题词	Science & Technology ; Physical Sciences
DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0623.1
关键词[WOS]	SYSTEM VERSION 2 ; SURFACE TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY ; BENGAL SALINITY STRATIFICATION ; OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTION ; TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC ; DIURNAL CYCLE ; NORTHWARD PROPAGATION ; SST VARIABILITY ; SOLAR-RADIATION ; COUPLED MODEL
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
项目资助者	Earth System Science Organization, Ministry of Earth Sciences, government of India(SSC-03-002 ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)(41776001) ; NSF(OCE-1658132) ; MM/SERP/CNRS/2013/INT-10/002)
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000435075300002
出版者	AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qibebt.ac.cn/handle/337004/11388
专题	中国科学院青岛生物能源与过程研究所
通讯作者	Li, Yuanlong
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China 2.Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA 3.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Funct Lab Ocean Dynam & Climate, Qingdao, Peoples R China 4.NOAA, Climate Predict Ctr, NWS, NCEP, College Pk, MD USA 5.Natl Ctr Antarctic & Ocean Res, Vasco De Gama, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Yuanlong,Han, Weiqing,Wang, Wanqiu,et al. The Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in CFSv2 Forecasts: Biases and Importance of Improving Air-Sea Interaction Processes[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(14):5351-5370.
APA	Li, Yuanlong,Han, Weiqing,Wang, Wanqiu,Zhang, Lei,&Ravichandran, M..(2018).The Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in CFSv2 Forecasts: Biases and Importance of Improving Air-Sea Interaction Processes.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(14),5351-5370.
MLA	Li, Yuanlong,et al."The Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in CFSv2 Forecasts: Biases and Importance of Improving Air-Sea Interaction Processes".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.14(2018):5351-5370.